DeepSeek’s Upcoming AI Model V4

According to recent reports from Reuters, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is set to launch its next-generation AI model V4 in mid-February. This model boasts strong coding capabilities and may outperform competitors such as Anthropic’s Claude and OpenAI’s GPT series. A year ago, DeepSeek released its large model R1, which the BBC described as showcasing China’s competitiveness in the AI field, just two years after OpenAI launched ChatGPT.

Experts interviewed by the Global Times indicated that in just one year, China has narrowed the gap with the United States in AI, using the one-year-old DeepSeek and three-year-old ChatGPT as benchmarks to illustrate the differing paths of the two nations.

Diverging Paths in AI Development

A year ago, Chen Yan, Executive Director of the Japan Institute (China), noticed the rising prominence of DeepSeek in Zhongguancun. The elevator no longer stopped at DeepSeek’s floor, and media reporters gathered downstairs for interviews. Chen received numerous inquiries from Japanese companies wanting to invest in DeepSeek but remarked that they had missed the optimal investment window. Previously, a $10 million investment was astonishing for such startups, but now even $1 billion may not guarantee entry.

Foreign media, including the Wall Street Journal, described the launch of DeepSeek’s R1 model as shocking to the world. Reports indicated that R1 completed training in just two months at a fraction of the cost incurred by American companies like OpenAI, yet its performance rivaled that of ChatGPT and Meta’s Llama model. By 2025, more Chinese large model companies are expected to keep pace with the latest developments in AI, joining the global first tier of large models.

China’s Growing Influence in Open Source AI

The South China Morning Post reported that according to a recent report from third-party AI model aggregator OpenRouter and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, Chinese open-source AI models account for nearly 30% of the global AI technology usage. China’s open-source model is gaining the trust of developers worldwide, with U.S. companies like Airbnb and even Meta utilizing Alibaba’s Qwen large model. AI researcher and author Sebastian Raschka noted that Alibaba’s Qwen3 series models, like DeepSeek’s R1, are among the most noteworthy open-source models to watch in 2025.

Alibaba reflected on the timeline, noting that OpenAI released ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, and by April 2023, Qwen series models were launched. Alibaba began its AI large model research as early as 2018 and has since introduced various models, including the multi-modal M6 and language model PLUG, solidifying its position as a major player in the global AI landscape. To date, Alibaba has open-sourced nearly 400 models, with over 180,000 global derivative models and downloads surpassing 700 million.

Different Approaches to AI

“In the past year, the U.S. and China have developed two very different main pathways for large models,” said Shen Yang, a dual-appointed professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Journalism and Communication and School of Artificial Intelligence. The U.S. has pursued a path of “continuous enhancement of cutting-edge capabilities + closed-source models + platform products,” encapsulating the strongest models into super interfaces like ChatGPT, while China’s approach emphasizes “open-source weights + extreme engineering efficiency + rapid industrial diffusion.” China does not aim for long-term monopolization of the strongest models but seeks to quickly translate “sufficiently strong capabilities” into replicable and applicable engineering assets, enabling swift integration into real business systems.

Shen further analyzed that while the U.S. still leads in the “strongest model’s cutting-edge capabilities,” the gap is no longer generational but rather measured in months to a year. In terms of “engineering efficiency, cost, and deployment speed,” China has nearly no time lag, with some areas even faster. However, in terms of “product platforms, ecosystems, and rule-making,” the U.S. remains one to two years ahead.

The Future of AI Competition

AI blogger Li Shanglong, who recently attended the CES in Las Vegas, described the U.S. as having two rivers: one fully in the AI era and the other slowly being permeated. He noted that in Silicon Valley, many people are actively discussing AI, ChatGPT, and related products, while outside Silicon Valley, many ordinary lives are not as AI-integrated. Returning to China to start a business, Li expressed that AI won’t change the U.S. overnight but will gradually alter the lifestyles of some individuals.

Professor Li Xiangming from Northeastern University, who has long monitored AI developments in China and the U.S., described that while AI is deeply embedded in the everyday lives of Americans, it is primarily in the “soft” aspects. AI has become infrastructure, influencing streaming recommendations, insurance pricing, navigation predictions, and office integration with models like ChatGPT. However, in terms of widespread adoption in “hard” aspects (physical hardware), the U.S. is still on the brink of explosion.

At CES, Li noted the impressive “engineering deployment speed” and “supply chain completeness” of Chinese products. Chinese companies dominate in areas such as lidar, high-energy-density batteries, and cost-effective motor components. Chinese robots not only iterate quickly but also possess significant mass production potential and cost advantages, which are crucial for integrating robots into global households. In the U.S., AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) equips robots with cognitive capabilities, while Chinese manufacturing is creating robust and accessible AI bodies, especially for humanoid robots.

The Next Big Breakthroughs in AI

“Pursuing model performance enhancement is the goal of all foundational model companies,” Alibaba stated. In China, the rapid development and rich application of models represent a unique advantage in AI.

A leader from a large model startup shared that their team is focusing on researching large models with capabilities in “long reasoning, coding, and multi-modality.” They believe that by 2025, the most significant change AI will bring is in coding, with AI increasingly replacing information reception, creation, and processing tasks. The team is investing considerable time in training AI for coding, treating it like a new intern who needs clear instructions. The key is to convert tasks into detailed prompts, ensuring clarity in requirements.

Alibaba also mentioned that they categorize AI development into three stages: learning from humans, assisting humans, and surpassing humans. They believe we are still in the early stages of the second phase, with the endpoint not necessarily being AGI but potentially leading to true superintelligence (ASI). “Of course, this is a grand and distant goal that will require a long time to achieve.”

Recently, Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed in a nearly three-hour podcast that AGI could emerge as early as 2026, with AI capabilities surpassing human intelligence by 2030. This statement has sparked extensive discussion.

Shen Yang noted that from a technical perspective, Musk’s prediction is not overly aggressive, but AGI is not solely an event declared by engineers. The question of which country achieves AGI first depends on technology, with the U.S. likely leading due to its computational power, engineering, and cutting-edge exploration advantages. However, China is better positioned to rapidly deploy AI in real-world settings, integrating it into industries, governance, and public services, allowing AI to operate in real systems, correct errors, and accumulate advantages over time.

In summary, Shen stated that while AGI may technically be realized first in the U.S., its true validation will depend on whether it can gain widespread trust and acceptance within society.

Anticipating the Next “DeepSeek Moment”

Professor Li Xiangming from Northeastern University suggested that the next “DeepSeek moment” is unlikely to occur in the realm of “pure general chat models” but may emerge in several directions: first, humanoid robots + large models, where the integration of large models into humanoid robot control, perception, and planning could exponentially amplify China’s engineering and manufacturing advantages; second, industrial/energy/supply chain large models, where Chinese companies have inherent advantages in complex processes, dense regulations, and highly structured data; third, breakthroughs in low-cost inference and edge models, similar to DeepSeek’s “efficiency revolution,” will likely occur in edge inference, edge computing, and domestic chip adaptation. In summary: the U.S. excels in “intelligent limits,” while China leads in “intelligent deployment.”

Robopoet’s Chief Marketing Officer Zhu Liang stated that AI hardware may experience a “DeepSeek moment” in 2026, as three conditions are now met: mature large model technology, controllable supply chain costs, and enhanced consumer awareness. The combination of these factors could lead to significant large-scale deployment, with their goal set at selling 1 million AI toys this year.

The milestone of “1 million units” in the AI toy industry signifies that once activated devices reach this number, daily interactions will generate token consumption in the millions. A vast user base will provide massive, high-quality interaction data, significantly accelerating the model’s “data flywheel” and exponentially enhancing the product’s AI capabilities, personalization, and emotional engagement. This creates a positive feedback loop: the more people use it, the better it becomes, and the better it becomes, the more people use it.

Furthermore, reaching “1 million units” indicates that the market’s overall understanding of the industry has matured. It demonstrates to the industry and consumers that AI toys are no longer niche products or trends but essential items that can genuinely integrate into daily life and provide emotional value.